Monday 26 April 2010

Surge in Mcr voter registration

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/england/8643934.stm
Almost 7000 registered in the last month - according to Sir Howard this is "unprecedented".
If evenly spread across all 32 wards, this would mean an extra 213 voters in each.
Some are speculating that the surge is a result of the debates, and many people are registering to vote for the Lib-Dems.

The British Electoral System

Sunday 25 April 2010

COMRES polling data analysis

COMRES polling data analysis

April 14th (before 1st debate) --> April 24th (post 2nd debate)

I've compiled and analysed the data tables of ComRes' latest poll, and compared them with 10 days ago, before the 1st debate.

The movements are both stark and encouraging for the Lib-Dem.

Age groups

The biggest surge has been in the under 45s, where we are now well ahead of Labour, and ahead of the Conservatives amongst the under 35s. All other age groups have seen significant rises also.

Interestingly we are now ahead of Labour in the pensioner age group, whereas we were almost 1:2 behind before the 1st debate:

Regional voting intention

The best news for us in Manchester is how we're doing in the North compared to 10 days ago.

We've almost trebled our support in our region, surpassing both parties.

Crucially we're ahead of the Tories in the South West were we are defending a great number of our seats:

Regional Leads

Just to really ram how much support we now have in the North - here's our regional leads:

THUNDERBIRDS ARE GO FOR NORTHERN LIB-DEMS!

Thursday 22 April 2010

Have the Lib-Dems replaced Labour as the natural party of power in Manchester?

In Manchester the Tories are nowhere - they haven't won a Council election in 18 years, so I've ignored their polling results over the last 10 days and I've just looked at Labour vs Lib-Dems.

What would these polls mean for Manchester if they were replicated on the final poll on 6th May?

....Lev